europact breakup
	most likely into 2 currency areas
			eur	curr
		devaluation	E-	FR-
		appreciation	E+	DM+
	4 scenario's
			E+	DM+
		E-	1	2
		FR-	3	4
1	already a reality, markets arbitrage through interest rate mechanism
	market adopted too late to avoid some major gov defaults
	these defaults will drive overall risk premium too high and stronger countries may wish to opt out
2	Germany exits, with other strong countries following as soon as politics allow
	France will lead remaining countries into E- zone, following Argentine style devaluation scenario
3	weak countries exit, lead by Greece and Spain, entering into FR- zone at initiative of France
	Germany and strong countries will continue the euro pact and create a strong currency / low interest area
4	total meltdown
	no real-world euro benchmark
			1	2	3	4
	euro		unstable	weak	strong	gone
	gov debt winddown		shared	pain on	pain on	unpredictable
			pain	creditors	debtors
	eur contracts		status quo	creditors	debtors	uncharted
				to sue	seek cover	territory
	inflation	countries +	high	low	medium	medium
		countries -	high	high	hyper	hyper
	growth		stagflation	recession	depression	social
						unrest
	politics	countries +	+/-	++	++	-
		countries -	+++	++	--	+